- Arthur Hayes sees Bitcoin gaining from US tariffs despite global economic shakes.
- Hayes says tariffs will cut DXY, prompting investors to sell US stocks for funds.
- Hayes: Bitcoin must hold $76,500 until April 15 to avoid deeper price drops.
BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes has made bold claims about the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on Bitcoin’s future. While many fear that the increased trade restrictions from the US government could shake the global economy, Hayes believes that these disruptions will ultimately fuel a significant surge in Bitcoin’s price.
To put things simply, Hayes believes that this turmoil caused by tariffs will force governments to print more money. This will further devalue fiat and help Bitcoin’s price. Here’s what he expects to happen.
Why Hayes Believes Tariffs are Good for Bitcoin
Hayes made the claim in a 3 April post on Twitter (X), where he said “Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for BTC.”
His comments came just a day after the news of the Trump administration’s 10% tariff on all imports from 5 April. Some countries are expected to face even steeper tariffs compared to others, including China at 34%, the European Union at 20%, and Japan at 24%.
Hayes believes that these tariffs will weaken the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and that international investors will sell off their US stocks to repatriate funds. Just as this happens, assets like Bitcoin and gold could benefit in the medium term. According to The Kobeissi Letter, the drop in the Nasdaq 100 on 3 April was “the largest single-day point loss in history” and could be a positive sign over the long term.
The Role of the Yuan in Bitcoin’s Potential Surge
One of the most critical aspects of Hayes’s arguments comes from China’s response. The newly imposed tariffs will put pressure on the Chinese Yuan (CNY). As a result, China might allow the currency to weaken past 8.00 in response to the tariffs. If that happens, Chinese investors could turn towards Bitcoin as a hedge against further devaluation.
From a historical perspective, the financial instability in China has been linked to the demand for Bitcoin. Chinese investors have often used Bitcoin as a store of value when the Yuan faces downward pressure. This is similar to how gold is used during times of economic uncertainty.
The Fed’s Role in Easing and Money Printing
Hayes also pointed out that the Federal Reserve could play a major role in Bitcoin’s future. For example, the announcement of the Trump tariffs saw a sharp decline in the two-year Treasury yield. This shows expectations of an incoming Federal Reserve rate cut, which might validate Hayes’s predictions.
In general, rate cuts increase market liquidity. When this happens, they make risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive to investors. In addition, if the FED also restarts its quantitative easing (QE) against the economic fallout, this could further drive investors towards Bitcoin.
What Next for Bitcoin?
While Hayes is bullish on Bitcoin in the long run, he also issued a short-term warning for the cryptocurrency’s holders because Bitcoin needs to maintain support around $76,500 until 15 April (Tax Day in the U.S.) to avoid further declines.
Bitcoin has already been very volatile in recent months. Since Donald Trump took office in January, the cryptocurrency has fallen by double digits, marking its worst Q1 performance in seven years, according to data from Coinglass.
The turbulence in the market is likely due to Trump’s aggressive trade policies, which continue to spook investors. Despite Donald Trump’s initial pro-crypto stance, his tariff policies have wiped out billions from the crypto and stock markets.
Hayes was one of the first to warn that these macroeconomic factors could weaken Bitcoin. He previously predicted Bitcoin would fall below $70,000 when it was still trading above $100,000, and if the trend holds true, Bitcoin could be set for growth over the long term.
