- Ripple may settle with the SEC as April 16 filing deadline passes without new brief.
- SEC leadership change adds weight to speculation of a 3–1 vote favoring case dismissal.
- Whale activity signals market confidence in potential XRP legal victory and regulatory clarity.
April 16, 2025, may mark a significant move in one of the most closely followed legal battles in the crypto sector. Ripple Labs is expected to either submit an appellate brief or announce a settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), possibly ending a lawsuit that has persisted for more than four years. The date has garnered major attention from XRP holders and legal observers, who believe the matter may soon be resolved.
Ripple was scheduled to submit its legal brief on April 16, following the SEC’s earlier appeal of a ruling concerning XRP’s regulatory status. However, recent changes suggest that Ripple may not proceed with the filing. Instead, both parties have agreed to pause legal motions, triggering widespread speculation that a final settlement may be imminent.
According to legal expert and pro-XRP attorney Fred Rispoli, there is a 90% chance that a settlement announcement will occur by the April 16 deadline. Rispoli’s view is in line with prior comments made by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, who revealed that Ripple and the SEC staff had settled on the conditions of dismissal. As Garlinghouse pointed out, the last phase is formal approval of the item by the SEC Commissioners.
SEC Chair Appointment Could Shift Case Dynamics
The appointment of Paul Atkins to the post of SEC chair adds a new factor to case decision-making. The U.S. Senate confirmed Atkins on April 9, and depending on his opinion about enforcement actions against cryptocurrencies, this decision can affect the final vote in the Commission.
Analysts are hopeful that if Atkins votes in favor of a dismissal, the decision should be reached in a 3:1 ratio. Although the SEC has not directly communicated about the possibility of a settlement, it has not refuted it either. No documents containing the final stages of the agreement have been publicized in the court records. As for the details of the potential settlement, they have not been privy to the public.
Some analysts have claimed that the exchange’s SEC had non-public, written guarantees. The absence of a response is an ideal situation that has not been explained by either of the parties mentioned in the above claims.
Whale Movements Suggest Market Anticipation
Legal challenges occur when whales or major contributors within XRP carry out many large transactions. In his on-chain analysis, Matt Sergeant-Squires noted that institutional wallets were trying to get into place as the deadline approached. Squire suggested that the delay of legal proceedings, combined with the wallet activity, signaled that a resolution was being worked out in the background.
Squire added further by pointing out that if the case goes in favor of Ripple, institutional capital will be channeled to XRP. He also said that eliminating such a legal factor means that there might be some expectations concerning introducing an XRP-based ETF, given that there are no live filings of ETFs and trading of ETFs takes place in the market.
Possible Regulatory Impact Across the Crypto Market
The conclusion of the SEC v. Ripple case could have some ramifications for regulatory laws. The case’s decision is based on whether XRP is a security, which will help define other cryptocurrencies in the United States. It may act as a precedent for future dismissals or settlements of digital asset matters. The practitioners have particularly paid close attention to the case to assess its development as the framework for interpreting the regulations in the future.
Given this state of circumstances, the expiration of the April 16 deadline, and the fact that no additional brief has been filed for appeal, the chances are high that they will enter into a settlement or withdraw the appeal. Currently, the XRP community, institutions, and even other developments in the cryptocurrency space wait for Ripple or the SEC to announce further steps or state that the lawsuit is over.
